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Hopes for change have yielded to despair

THE anniversary on August 8th of Myanmar’s popular uprising against military rule in 1988 saw exiled activists across the world remember fallen colleagues and call for renewed pressure on the junta by foreign governments. But in the teashops of Yangon, Myanmar’s biggest city, the talk two decades on is not of sanctions but of the need for dialogue, of frustration with the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, and even with its detained leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and of the widening gap between those who oppose the junta from abroad and those who live under its thumb.

Once supported as the rightful government, after its ignored election victory in 1990, the League is increasingly seen as ineffective and irrelevant, with policies that do more harm than good. A guesthouse owner says economic sanctions, which the League supports, are “killing us”. The League, he says, are “just another bunch of politicians”. A few even grumble about Miss Suu Kyi herself. One critic says she “has lost touch with the suffering of the people”. Even some who helped found the party are disillusioned. A veteran of the 1988 movement admits that the League has “not met the expectation of the people”. ...

More royalist than the king

ONE of the shabbiest but most popular tricks in Thai politics is to accuse your critics of disloyalty to revered King Bhumibol. Anyone can file a police complaint of lese-majeste on the king’s behalf and the penalty is up to 15 years in jail. During the current political conflict, like past ones, such allegations have increased, sometimes based on fairly trivial references to royalty.

A union official at a clothing factory was sacked on July 30th for wearing a T-shirt supporting the right of people not to stand when the royal anthem is played. Her T-shirt referred to a lese-majeste complaint filed against a man who stayed seated during the anthem in a Bangkok cinema last September. ...

The Olympics have not brought Beijing’s businesses the boom they hoped for

YABAO ROAD in Beijing’s embassy district is normally bustling. Russian traders scour its wholesale shops for furs and boots. Hawkers throng the pavements. The street is jammed with taxis and pedicabs. But the Olympic games have begun. Yabao Road is now strangely quiet.

Only a few months ago many shopkeepers, restaurants and hotels were expecting these to be boom times as big-spending foreigners flocked in for the games. Today many businessmen in and around the capital are disgruntled. So too are other citizens who find that even some outdoor food markets have been closed as part of an Olympic spruce-up. ...

Thailand’s deposed prime minister jumps bail. But political turmoil may persist

GIVEN the avalanche of corruption cases tumbling on Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife Potjaman, it caused some surprise in Thailand when the Supreme Court let them leave the country to attend the opening of the Olympics in Beijing. Right up until the early evening on August 10th, the deposed prime minister’s spokesman was insisting that the couple would return that day to Bangkok, to appear in court the next morning. However, they flew instead to London, where they had spent a period in exile following the 2006 military coup.

In a handwritten note faxed to Thai television stations, Mr Thaksin (the puppet-master in the cartoon above) admitted that “I am not a perfect man” but claimed the cases against him were a plot by his political foes, who he said were interfering in the judiciary. He said he hoped to return to Thailand some day but made it sound like that would not be soon. The court was shocked—shocked!—that its defendants had skipped bail, and issued arrest warrants. But its decision to let the couple go to Beijing prompted speculation that they had been given the nod to flee into exile, in the hope of ending Thailand’s three-year political stand-off. ...

Enemies of Pakistan’s president smell blood

RETIREMENT beckons for President Pervez Musharraf. On August 11th Pakistan’s ruling coalition, led by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), convened parliament in order to impeach the former dictator. By coincidence, it was his 65th birthday.

The PPP and its main ally, the Pakistan Muslim League (N), or PML (N), have drawn up a charge-sheet against Mr Musharraf. It remained under wraps; yet the government’s leaders have accused the two-time army coupster of subverting the constitution. The PPP’s leader, Asif Zardari, has also accused him of misusing American aid given to fight the war on terror. The government has promised to publish its charge-sheet and launch the impeachment within a few days—if Mr Musharraf does not resign first, as it hoped he would. ...

A brutal military campaign threatens Sri Lanka’s exporters

AT A lingerie factory in Pannala, in Sri Lanka’s Western Province, lines of women in red work-coats, red headscarves and face-masks are stitching knickers. These garments, bound for British high streets, represent one of Sri Lanka’s strengths: an innovative garment industry, which accounts for 67% of total industrial output and the equivalent of 10% of GDP. The factory’s owner, MAS Holdings, Sri Lanka’s biggest garment-maker, employs 45,000 Sri Lankans, and had revenues of $700m last year.

Seen from here, Sri Lanka’s big weakness—the 25-year war between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the government—might be in another country. It is waged mostly in the north and east, leaving the populous, well-off west largely unscathed. But this could change. ...

News from the Forbidden Citius, Altius, Fortius

Producers of the dazzling Olympic opening ceremony on August 8th acknowledged that an adorable nine-year-old girl in a red dress was miming her solo rather than singing, and that the actual singer had been removed at the last minute because of her round face and uneven teeth. They also revealed that the impressive 29-step progression of firework “footprints” that on television appeared to lead across Beijing to the stadium was a computer-generated graphic.

Despite ugly scenes in July when thousands of people queued for hours, pushed, shoved and tussled with police to buy the last available Olympic tickets, many seats were vacant during the first week of competition. When Michael Phelps, an American swimmer, won his third gold medal of the games on August 12th, hundreds of seats at the pool were empty. That day nearly half the venues were less than four-fifths full, and some two-thirds empty. The International Olympic Committee and the games’ sponsors have asked Beijing to increase attendance by easing access to the tightly secured Olympic complex. ...

The president forgives some tycoons

THE leaders of South Korea’s conglomerates or chaebols have long acted as if they were above the law. Kim Seung-youn, chairman of Hanwha, an explosives, construction and insurance group, confessed last year to beating bar workers at a building site with the help of his own goons. He was retaliating after his son was hurt in a scuffle. After a few months in jail, Mr Kim was released on health grounds, and was soon back at his desk running Hanwha. This week, to mark the day South Korea celebrates liberation from Japanese colonialism, the president, Lee Myung-bak, pardoned him and 341,863 others.

They included Chung Mong-koo, the chairman of Hyundai, the world’s sixth-largest carmaker. Last year Mr Chung was convicted of embezzling about $90m from his company, and sentenced to 300 hours of community service. Chey Tae-won, of SK Group, a telecommunications, oil-refining and construction chaebol, was convicted in 2003 of illegal share swaps designed to keep the most lucrative parts of the group in his family’s control. Mr Chey did not serve any time in prison, but was given a suspended sentence. Now Mr Lee has pardoned him, too. ...

Behind the sporting glitz, anxieties about minorities and the economy

CHINA’S Olympic pageantry is under way. Dozens of dignitaries, presidents and prime ministers have gathered in Beijing for an extravaganza that many Chinese see as a celebration of their nation’s rise. But for all their professed joy at the spectacle, China’s own leaders are fretful.

The massive security around Beijing and the authorities’ strenuous efforts to keep potential protesters at bay is evidence of nervousness. These measures have gone beyond what might be expected for an event attended by so many bigwigs. In the past few months, instability has roiled Tibet and Tibetan-inhabited areas. Anti-Chinese resentment has been simmering in neighbouring Xinjiang too. Though sparsely populated, these regions make up around 40% of China’s land mass. ...

News from the Forbidden Citius, Altius, Fortius

YAO MING, a basketball player, carried the Olympic torch into Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, starting the final leg of a relay that had begun in Greece on March 24th. On the eighth day of the eighth month, 2008 (supposedly, an auspicious date), the national teams enter the Olympic stadium (“the bird’s nest”), though not, as usual, in alphabetical order. According to the head of the Australian Olympic committee, the order of the teams will be determined by the number of strokes in the first character of a country’s Chinese name. That would put Guinea and Japan first, Australia and Zambia last.

There is much grumbling in Beijing about security measures, including checkpoints circling the city, baggage searches on the underground and home visits by the police to check identity documents. The capital’s secret police, the State Security Bureau, published notices calling on citizens to be on the alert for a host of potential threats, including people “using religion to threaten state security” and foreigners making contact with Chinese subversives. A resident quoted by a Chinese newspaper said this was the first time in 40 years of living in the capital he had seen such a notice. ...

A new cabinet is torn between governing and preparing for the polls

AFTER months of rumour and machination, Yasuo Fukuda, Japan’s prime minister, finally reshuffled his cabinet on August 1st, replacing 13 of the 17 ministers. The new government brings in some heavyweights. But it faces irreconcilable goals. One is to push through reforms that require big political battles. The other is to polish the image of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for a general election which must be called by September 2009.

The new government is split over these goals. The linchpin of the team is Taro Aso, a charismatic former foreign minister who becomes secretary-general of the LDP. He wants to splash money about. The economy may well be in recession: production, exports, wages and profits are all down. But Japan has the biggest debt-to-GDP ratio of any rich country (180% in 2007) and has promised that the budget will be in surplus by 2011, a test of probity. Mr Aso wonders aloud whether to push back that date. ...

A peace deal, at last, with Muslim rebels—then a backlash

A CHANCE to end a war that has raged for almost 40 years and killed 120,000 people has come, and perhaps gone. On August 5th the Philippines’ government was set to sign a peace agreement with the largest Muslim separatist group on the southern island of Mindanao. The deal came after 11 years of on-off talks, brokered since 2001 by Malaysia. But the day before signing, as both sides’ representatives and foreign dignitaries arrived in Kuala Lumpur for the ceremony, the Philippine Supreme Court halted it with a restraining order. Catholics from Mindanao had petitioned the court, and staged big street protests, because they had not been consulted on a deal which they fear could end up requiring some of them to live in a self-governing Muslim homeland.

In fairness, the peace agreement promises referendums in the affected districts. But even if the Supreme Court eventually lets it be signed, putting it into effect will almost certainly require changes to the constitution. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will probably be unable to achieve this, given the suspicions she raised in previous attempts at constitutional “reform”, which looked to her opponents like ploys to keep herself in power beyond the end of her mandate in 2010. Some already allege that the deal is simply a cover for Mrs Arroyo to have another try at this. ...

Tonga’s king voluntarily surrenders power

UPON accession to the throne, Tonga’s kings have traditionally retired to a position of revered remoteness, leaving day-to-day affairs of state to a designated hau or ruler. So it is to be with King George Tupou V, who was crowned King of Tonga on August 1st in an elaborate ceremony attended by minor royals from around the world. Since the death of his father, the crown prince has divested himself of interests in brewing, telecommunications and electricity. Now the monarch’s political role is changing, too.

In 2006, demonstrations destroyed much of the business district of Tonga’s capital, Nuku’alofa. The disturbances were sparked by “demagogues”, the new king said, including “certain politicians who couldn’t control the crowd”. He was referring to pro-democracy members of parliament, many of whom are facing charges of sedition. Most of them swept back to power in an election in April. Elected members now make up nine of Tonga’s 33 parliamentarians. Another 15 have been appointed by the king, and nine selected by the country’s nobles. ...

Amid growing insecurity and economic crisis, Pakistan’s government decides to impeach the president

PAKISTAN is sliding. Taliban commanders are taking over more of the country’s ungoverned north-west by the day. From there they launch attacks into Afghanistan, killing NATO soldiers and countless Afghans. America, hitherto a remarkably forgiving ally, appears to think Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is assisting them. India certainly thinks so. Tensions between South Asia’s nuclear-armed rivals are rising. After a suicide-bomb attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul last month—which India blamed on the ISI—its national security adviser, M.K. Narayanan, warned that India might have to “retaliate in kind”.

The economy is hell-bound. Inflation is running at 25% a year. The stockmarket in Karachi has lost 35% of its value since April. During blackouts, Pakistani businessmen trade tales of capital flight. Foreign-exchange reserves—once emblematic of economic recovery—now barely cover three months of imports. ...

The shape of post-military politics begins to emerge

IT HARDLY seemed like a significant event. On August 4th, just 1.5% of Bangladesh’s voters were permitted by the army to go to the polls in the first round of local elections. The vote was held under a state of emergency. Candidates could not compete under party labels. One party leader was in jail, another in exile.

But these were also the first polls held since the army installed a civilian government in January 2007. Fears that the military would rig the result proved unfounded. The election commission purged 12m duplicate, deceased or bogus names from voter rolls. For the first time, Bangladeshis saw a voting system that seemed to deliver a fair and credible outcome. ...